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Health insurance decision tool

COBRA vs Marketplace
Health Insurance Calculator

Laid off or between jobs? Compare the full 18-month cost of keeping your employer plan through COBRA versus buying a Marketplace (Obamacare/ACA) plan — premiums, deductibles, subsidies, and the break-even point, all in one honest calculation.

COBRA MARKETPLACE you are here: coverage crossroads
Educational estimates — not insurance or financial advice. This tool simplifies a complex decision. Always verify plan details and subsidy eligibility at healthcare.gov or with a licensed navigator before enrolling.

The 18-month comparison

Enter your numbers below. The calculator models two paths over 18 months: Path A — COBRA for as many months as you have left, then a Marketplace plan; versus Path B — Marketplace for the full 18 months. Everything runs in your browser — no data leaves this page.

Your situation

Two questions that shape the whole comparison.

Federal max is 18 months. Already used some? Enter what's left.
Your best guess at total billed medical care per year (before insurance pays).

COBRA — your employer plan

The full cost of your group plan, not just your old paycheck deduction.

$
Employer + employee share. Printed on your COBRA election notice.
%
Federal law caps this at 2% (102% of premium).
COBRA plan cost-sharing (optional)
$
$

Marketplace — ACA plan

The plan you'd buy on healthcare.gov, after any subsidy.

$
Don't know your subsidy yet? Use the estimator below.
$
$
%

💰 Premium tax credit estimator simplified estimate

Roughly what ACA subsidy you might qualify for on a Marketplace plan. This is not an official eligibility determination — the real calculation happens at healthcare.gov. Credits cannot be applied to COBRA premiums.

$
$
Second-lowest-cost silver plan in your area (healthcare.gov shows this).

Your result

Premiums plus expected medical cost-sharing, month by month, over 18 months.

18-month verdict

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—

Path A · COBRA then Marketplace

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Premiums — + medical —
Avg —/month

Path B · Marketplace all 18 months

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Premiums — + medical —
Avg —/month

Cumulative cost, month by month

How the two paths pull apart over time.

COBRA pathMarketplace pathBreak-even point

What if your COBRA ran out sooner?

Same numbers, different months of COBRA remaining:

Month-by-month table (18 months)
MonthCOBRA path prem.COBRA path medicalCOBRA path totalMarketplace total
Remember: these are educational estimates, not insurance or financial advice. Your actual costs depend on your plan's network, drug formulary, and how much care you really use. Deductible progress resets when you switch plans mid-year (modeled above). Verify subsidy eligibility at healthcare.gov.

Worked examples

Three real scenarios, calculated step by step with the same engine above. Hit “load” to replay any of them in the calculator.

Marketplace wins

Example 1 — Healthy 32-year-old, laid off, full 18 months of COBRA available

  1. COBRA premium: $650 plan cost × 1.02 admin fee = $663.00/month.
  2. 18-month COBRA premiums: 18 × $663.00 = $11,934.00.
  3. Medical (low usage ≈ $1,500/yr): $1,500 is under the $2,000 deductible, so you pay all of it in year 1; the final 6 months add $750 → $2,250.00 medical.
  4. Path A total: $11,934.00 + $2,250.00 = $14,184.00.
  5. Marketplace at $180/month after subsidy: premiums 18 × $180 = $3,240.00; same $2,250.00 medical → Path B = $5,490.00.
  6. Verdict: Marketplace wins by $8,694.00 — cheaper from month 1.
Marketplace wins

Example 2 — Family of four, high medical needs, 12 months of COBRA left

  1. COBRA premium: $1,765 plan cost × 1.02 = $1,800.30/month.
  2. Path A premiums: 12 × $1,800.30 + 6 × $520.00 = $21,603.60 + $3,120.00 = $24,723.60.
  3. Medical (high usage ≈ $12,000/yr, $3,000 deductible / $14,000 OOP max, 20% coinsurance): year 1 → $3,000 + 20% × $9,000 = $4,800; final 6 months on a fresh Marketplace deductible → $3,000 + 20% × $3,000 = $3,600 → $8,400.00 medical.
  4. Path A total: $24,723.60 + $8,400.00 = $33,123.60.
  5. Marketplace all 18 months: premiums 18 × $520 = $9,360.00; medical $4,800 + $3,600 = $8,400.00 → Path B = $17,760.00.
  6. Verdict: Marketplace wins by $15,363.60 — the family COBRA premium is the killer.
COBRA path wins

Example 3 — Between jobs, cheap COBRA, only 4 months left

  1. COBRA premium: $400 plan cost × 1.02 = $408.00/month.
  2. Path A premiums: 4 × $408.00 + 14 × $550.00 = $1,632.00 + $7,700.00 = $9,332.00.
  3. Medical (low usage ≈ $1,500/yr, $5,000 deductible): spending never reaches the deductible, so you pay the full $2,250.00 over 18 months on either path.
  4. Path A total: $9,332.00 + $2,250.00 = $11,582.00.
  5. Marketplace all 18 months: 18 × $550.00 + $2,250.00 = $12,150.00.
  6. Verdict: the COBRA path wins by $568.00 — no break-even point; a short, cheap COBRA bridge beats an expensive unsubsidized Marketplace plan.

How the math works

Everything is transparent — no black boxes. The model is deliberately simple and every assumption is listed.

The two paths

Path A (COBRA then Marketplace): you stay on COBRA for min(months remaining, 18) months, then switch to the Marketplace plan for the rest of the 18-month window. Path B (Marketplace only): the Marketplace plan for all 18 months.

Premiums

COBRA monthly premium = plan cost × (1 + admin fee), with the fee capped at 2% by federal law. Marketplace premium is used exactly as you enter it (after any subsidy).

Medical cost-sharing

Expected annual billed care comes from your usage level: low ≈ $1,500, medium ≈ $5,000, high ≈ $12,000, very high ≈ $30,000. For each 12-month plan segment the tool computes min(OOP max, deductible + coinsurance × (spending − deductible)) — and the deductible resets when you switch plans, exactly like real life (see FAQ). Costs are spread evenly across the months inside each segment.

Break-even month

The first month where the Marketplace path's cumulative cost drops to or below the COBRA path's. If it never happens within 18 months, the tool says so honestly — some cheap COBRA bridges never lose.

Subsidy estimator (simplified)

Uses HHS federal poverty guidelines (2025 figures: $15,650 for one person in the contiguous US, +$5,500 per extra household member; higher in Alaska/Hawaii) and the ACA's statutory sliding scale for the required contribution:

Income (% of poverty level)Expected contribution (% of income)
100–133%2.00%
133–150%3.00–4.00%
150–200%4.00–6.30%
200–250%6.30–8.05%
250–300%8.05–9.50%
300–400%9.50%

Estimated monthly credit = max(0, benchmark silver premium − income × contribution% ÷ 12). Linear interpolation inside each band. This is a rough estimate — real eligibility is determined at healthcare.gov, and credits can never be applied to COBRA premiums.

Assumptions & limits

  • 18-month federal COBRA maximum; state mini-COBRA rules are not modeled.
  • Usage levels are fixed annual estimates — your real spending will differ.
  • Coinsurance defaults to 20%; copays and drug tiers are not modeled separately.
  • No inflation, no plan changes mid-year, no second qualifying events.
  • Vintage: poverty guidelines HHS 2025 (used for 2026 coverage); sliding scale is statutory. Checked October 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Straight answers to the questions people actually search for.

What is COBRA insurance and how does it work?

COBRA (Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act) is a US federal law that lets you temporarily keep your employer's group health plan after a qualifying event such as job loss or reduced hours. You keep the exact same doctors, network, deductible progress, and benefits you had as an employee. The catch: you pay the entire premium yourself — the share your employer used to pay plus the share you paid — plus an administrative fee of up to 2%. Your employer notifies the plan administrator, you get an election notice, and you have at least 60 days to decide.

How much does COBRA insurance cost per month?

Because you pay the full premium plus up to a 2% admin fee, COBRA insurance typically costs 3 to 5 times what was deducted from your paycheck as an employee. For one person that commonly lands around $400 to $700 per month, and for family coverage (family of 3, 4, or more) often $1,200 to $2,000 or more per month, depending on the plan. Premiums also vary by state — in California, for example, check whether Cal-COBRA (the state's mini-COBRA law for employers with 2–19 workers, up to 36 months) applies to you. The exact number for your plan is printed on your COBRA election notice — enter it in the calculator above as the full monthly plan cost and the tool adds the admin fee for you.

How long does COBRA last: 18 months or 36 months?

For the most common qualifying events — termination of employment and reduction of hours — federal COBRA lasts up to 18 months. Retiring and losing your group coverage counts the same way: up to 18 months. Other qualifying events (divorce or legal separation, death of the covered employee, Medicare entitlement, or a child losing dependent status) allow up to 36 months. A disability extension can stretch coverage to 29 months total. Some states also have “mini-COBRA” laws for employers with fewer than 20 workers, with their own duration rules — California's Cal-COBRA, for instance, can bring the total to 36 months.

Is COBRA or Marketplace (Obamacare) health insurance cheaper — which is better?

For most people who qualify for premium tax credits, a Marketplace (ACA) plan is cheaper — often dramatically so, because the subsidy is based on your income while COBRA charges the full group premium. Marketplace plans are individual-market plans (sometimes called private or open-market plans), so “COBRA vs private health insurance” is the same comparison. But COBRA can win in specific situations: your income is too high for subsidies, you already met most of your employer plan's deductible for the year, you take medications tied to that plan's formulary, or you only need coverage for a few months. This “which is better” debate comes up constantly on forums like Reddit's r/personalfinance — and the honest answer is that it depends on your numbers, which is exactly what the calculator above settles over the full 18 months, including deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums.

Can I get a subsidy (premium tax credit) with COBRA?

No. Premium tax credits cannot be used to pay COBRA premiums — this is a common and expensive misunderstanding. If you are eligible for both, it is an either-or choice: take the premium tax credit on a Marketplace plan, or pay the full COBRA premium yourself with no subsidy. The subsidy estimator in this tool shows what credit you might qualify for on a Marketplace plan only.

What happens after my 18 months of COBRA run out?

Your COBRA coverage ends, but losing it is a qualifying life event that triggers a 60-day Special Enrollment Period to buy a Marketplace plan — you will not be stuck uninsured if you act in time. If you know the end date in advance, you can also shop during the regular Open Enrollment Period. Note that you generally cannot switch from COBRA to a subsidized Marketplace plan mid-stream just because you feel like it; voluntary drop of COBRA is not a qualifying event in most cases.

Do I get a Special Enrollment Period for the Marketplace after losing my job?

Yes. Losing job-based coverage is a qualifying life event that gives you a 60-day Special Enrollment Period to enroll in a Marketplace plan — the window runs 60 days before or after your coverage ends. Separately, you have at least 60 days to elect COBRA after receiving your election notice, and COBRA election can be retroactive to the date your coverage ended. The two clocks run independently, so read both notices carefully.

Can I get COBRA if I was laid off — or if I quit my job?

Yes to both. Involuntary termination (layoffs) and voluntary quits are both qualifying events, as long as the termination was not for gross misconduct. Reduction of work hours also qualifies. The employer-size rule matters more than the reason: federal COBRA applies to private employers with 20 or more employees. Smaller employers may be covered by state mini-COBRA laws instead.

Is COBRA worth it between jobs, or for just one month?

Sometimes — and there is a little-known timing quirk: you have at least 60 days to elect COBRA and 45 more days to make the first payment, and coverage is retroactive. Some people between jobs use this as a bridge, electing only if medical care is needed during the gap. The risks are real though: miss a deadline and the bridge disappears, and a subsidized Marketplace plan is often cheaper for the same months. Run both scenarios in the calculator, especially the “months of COBRA remaining” sensitivity.

How does the 2% COBRA administrative fee work?

Federal law lets the plan charge up to 102% of the group premium: the full cost of coverage plus a 2% administration fee. During the 11-month disability extension, the cap rises to 150% of the premium. The fee is set by the plan — most charge the full 2% — and it is already included in the monthly amount on your election notice. In this calculator, enter the base plan cost and the tool applies the admin percentage (capped at 2%) for you.

Does my deductible reset if I switch from COBRA to a Marketplace plan?

Yes. A Marketplace plan is a brand-new policy: its deductible and out-of-pocket maximum start at zero, and nothing you already paid toward your employer plan's deductible transfers over. This reset is one of the hidden costs of switching mid-year, and this calculator models it — medical costs are computed per 12-month plan segment, so a mid-year switch starts a fresh deductible in the math, just like in real life.

COBRA vs ACA: do both cover pre-existing conditions?

Yes, both. COBRA simply continues your existing employer group coverage, which already covered you. Marketplace plans under the Affordable Care Act cannot deny coverage or charge you more because of a pre-existing condition, and they must cover the ten essential health benefits. Neither option has a waiting period for pre-existing conditions.

What counts as a qualifying event for COBRA?

For employees: termination of employment (voluntary or involuntary, except gross misconduct) and reduction of hours. For spouses and dependent children, those plus: divorce or legal separation, the covered employee's death or Medicare entitlement, and a child losing dependent status. The employer must generally have had 20 or more employees on more than 50% of business days in the previous calendar year.

How accurate is this calculator — is this financial advice?

This tool produces educational estimates, not insurance or financial advice. Premiums, deductibles, and cost-sharing are simplified into an 18-month model; the subsidy estimator uses a simplified version of the ACA sliding scale and is not an official eligibility determination. Real costs depend on your specific plan documents, state rules, and current law — verify everything at healthcare.gov or with a licensed navigator or broker before enrolling.

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